IPv6 adoption as seen from an Internet backbone link

May 29th, 2018 by Paul Hick and Josh Polterock

For the last ten years (with some gaps due to network upgrades), CAIDA has captured monthly traffic samples on Internet backbone links in several large U.S[ cities (San Jose, Chicago, and since March this year, New York City).
We publish statistics for these traces at http://www.caida.org/data/passive/trace_stats/, which illustrates the growth in IPv6 traffic, relative to IPv4. Over the 10-year period covered by our traffic captures, the increase follows a steady exponential trend (linear on a log-lin graph), increasing 10-fold every 3 years. Currently the IPv6 fraction hovers around 1%. Were this trend to continue, the ratios would be roughly 50% each around October 2022 (for packets) September 2023 (for bytes). The byte fraction increases more slowly, reflecting a slightly smaller average IPv6 packet size compared to IPv4.

IPv6 Traffic Seen on a Backbone Link

We are not making any predictions, and note that CGN deployment is also increasing rapidly. We are just reporting the best available data we have.

One Response to “IPv6 adoption as seen from an Internet backbone link”

  1. Abraham Y. Chen Says:

    First, are you aware a regularly updated world-wide statistics about % of Internet traffic that is carried by IPv6? It appears quite different from yours:

    https://ams-ix.net/technical/statistics/sflow-stats/ether-type

    Secondly, the IPv4 shortage issue may have been resolved. We came upon a scheme that will expand each public IPv4 address by 256M (Million) fold without affecting the current Internet. We have submitted a proposal called EzIP (phonetic for Easy IPv4) to IETF:

    https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-chen-ati-adaptive-ipv4-address-space-03

    Essentially, EzIP can establish a sub-Internet capable of serving an area with up to 256M IoTs from just one IPv4 address. This is bigger than the largest city (Tokyo metro) and 75% of the countries. The current Internet becomes the backbone / infrastructure / skeleton for interconnecting these sub-Internets, but only for traffic among them, very similar as the electric grid supporting islands of renewable energy generated by individual homes and businesses. Consequently, there will be a lot of spare IPv4 addresses, now.

    Thoughts and comments will be much appreciated.

    Abe (2018-08-27 23:31)

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