IPv6 adoption as seen from an Internet backbone link
May 29th, 2018 by Paul Hick and Josh PolterockFor the last ten years (with some gaps due to network upgrades), CAIDA has captured monthly traffic samples on Internet backbone links in several large U.S[ cities (San Jose, Chicago, and since March this year, New York City).
We publish statistics for these traces at http://www.caida.org/data/passive/trace_stats/, which illustrates the growth in IPv6 traffic, relative to IPv4. Over the 10-year period covered by our traffic captures, the increase follows a steady exponential trend (linear on a log-lin graph), increasing 10-fold every 3 years. Currently the IPv6 fraction hovers around 1%. Were this trend to continue, the ratios would be roughly 50% each around October 2022 (for packets) September 2023 (for bytes). The byte fraction increases more slowly, reflecting a slightly smaller average IPv6 packet size compared to IPv4.
We are not making any predictions, and note that CGN deployment is also increasing rapidly. We are just reporting the best available data we have.